Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Post-2nd Profit blowout.



11:00 Strategy tested the FX robot's algorithms. Note: had I not closed the robot to protect equity it would have recovered almost the entire losses from yesterday and overnight. However, it still got picked off. It felt like a deep pocket trader was triggering it to trade and then going against it by triggering the robots stops. It was amazing the way the market turned every time the robot traded. This after the robot successfully traded into profits over the past fortnight with scarcely an intra-day draw down. That's what it felt like observing the robot. Reality is that it's more likely the EUR/USD pair altered it's behaviour and as such was picking off the robot's entry.

11:30 Pumped in funds that were lost.

11:47 Changed the robots parameters. Strategy tested the robot went back into profit. Essentially, widened the Points of Control (PoC). Changed the stops. Sure enough the revised robot triggered its first trade.

15:07 It lost the first and then the second trade. The third is currently showing a loss. Even though the strategy tests show the robot is profit making on the live market, currently, it is loss making. The losing streak continues and on this basis it is better to shut everything down and walk away.

15:56 Good to keep an eye on the Dollar Index (DX). Important to understand how it is weighted:

    Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
    Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
    Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
    Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
    Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
    Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

The Euro makes up 57.6%. With such a weighting it's a toss up to see which is a leading indicator. The EUR/USD pair or the Dollar Index (DX).  Generally, assume they act opposite in direction. You could trade the EUR/USD on a reverse indicator that is the (DX). This wasn't added to the robots algorithm.

16:27 The third trade of the day turned out to be a winning trade. Overall my equity is down 11.5%. I fully intend to trade FX 24 hours a day. Have to adjust the parameters slightly.  This trade was a breakout from PoC (12).

16:38 The problem with listening to FX analysts is that they forecast to far in a particular direction. They lag the market and don't lead it. In much the same way a news reporter will report news on events that already happened. Don't expect analysts to be right all the time even if offering two way forecasts.

16:48 The forth trade was a win. The robot sold the top. The PoC (12) wide enough to not prevent the robot from doing so.