Thursday, June 11, 2020

Winning then giving back.




09:38 Overnight PoC(12) won 3 trades - PoC(12) is the name given to my trading robot.

09:40 This morning it lost the fourth trade. I could see it was a losing trade, but decided to let it ride out to see if it does close at a loss. Silly, may be, however, PoC(12) needs to be tested and interference would skew the results.

09:42 PoC(12) Entered its fifth trade. This trade closed at a win. PoC(12) correctly caught a peak. Anyone looking at FX time series could conclude that FX markets have bad Feng Shui. The sharp peaks and troughs most likely designed to pick traders off.

09:56 There are no hard and fast trading rules. In hindsight, I should have closed that fourth losing trade. The trend, generally, is your friend. I would say the sharp peaks and troughs are designed to pick you off the trend. Equally, to pick you off any sideways movement, in channeling, by fainting the appearance of a trend. This I have observed since looking at FX.  It's nasty, brutal and unforgiving.

Peaks and troughs designed to throw you off a trend. Equally, to pick off oscillators.

10:31 I scratched the sixth trade at a small loss. Due to the sharp peaks and troughs I noticed that PoC(12) was getting picked off. It's better to pause PoC(12). PoC(8) would have performed better. Two minds on whether to switch on PoC(8). Perhaps, run both in parallel. Still undecided.

10:50 Un-paused PoC(12) on the basis that had I not scratch the sixth trade PoC12 would have traded correctly. PoC(8) will have to wait on the sidelines.

14:33 PoC(12) lost the seventh trade. Decided to use PoC(5) to run in parallel with PoC(12) just to experiment and see what happens.  PoC(8) stays in the sidelines. I could at some point run all three. PoCs (5,8,12). In order to recover previous losses I have to try something different. Note: PoC(5) has performed better during European and American trading sessions and PoC(8) during the Asian trading sessions.

16:58 Switched off PoC(5) and switched on PoC(8). The 8th & 9th trades both lost. So, despite being up in the morning, I'm down on the evening. Again it's the sharp peaks and troughs causing mayhem. There is a method to cut out this noise, but I need to explore the noise more to fully understand it.

18:14 10th and 11th trades are both wins. It seems that PoC combination (8) & (12) is doing as planned. This means more trading. Planning on deploying PoC(5) on the London open perhaps running all three. It feels like I'm running a trading house with a team of PoCs. March of the robots or what.

18:23 The 12th and 13th trades of the day both won. Interesting that both PoCs took the same position. Almost identical entries despite the parameters being very different. The last four trades have put me up again. I've decided to pause at this point as I need to take a break from trading FX. Later on, tonight, the PoC team will be deployed.

18:30 The concept of turning on multiple PoCs is what came out of this day's trading. Sure enough, they turned what would have been a down day to an up day.